SpaceX’s stock could come under pressure again as more early investors gain the freedom to cash in their stakes, said research analyst and “Prof G Markets” podcast co-host Ed Elson.
Elson discussed the risks surrounding SpaceX’s mega IPO in June during an episode of Kara Swisher’s “On” podcast, released on Thursday.
He said that although SpaceX’s first major lockup expiration didn’t trigger the sell-off some investors feared, the company still has seven more rounds of shares scheduled to become eligible for trading by the end of the year.
Elson predicted “a lot of selling pressure” as early backers look to realize their SpaceX gains and “buy themselves a boat or a house or maybe even a plane.”
Lockup agreements prevent company insiders and early investors from selling shares for a set period after an initial public offering. When those restrictions expire, a larger supply of stock can enter the market, potentially weighing on its price if demand fails to keep pace.
More than 900 million SpaceX shares became eligible for sale on August 6. Rather than falling, the stock rose 6.1% that day and jumped nearly 16% in the following session.
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Elson said short sellers closing their positions may have helped the stock withstand the additional supply. A lockup expiration also makes shares eligible for sale, but does not mean their owners will necessarily sell them.
Another tranche of about 320 million shares is expected to become eligible for trading on August 20, creating another potential test for investor demand.
SpaceX began trading on the Nasdaq in June after raising about $85.7 billion in the largest IPO on record. Its shares were priced at $135 and soared to $225.64 during its first week.
The stock closed Thursday at $141.29, slightly above its IPO price but about 30% below its June 16 closing high.
That volatility may continue as successive lockup periods expire.
For early investors whose shares have appreciated dramatically since SpaceX’s private funding rounds, Elson said the incentive to turn those paper gains into tangible rewards could ultimately prove difficult to resist.
