The celebrities and wannabe celebrities who usually inhabit LA’s Nobu Malibu were swapped out Wednesday night by bankers in sport coats mingling with startup founders, munching on caviar handrolls while sipping lychee martinis and champagne. The good times are back.
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It was the closing party for the Jefferies Private Growth Conference, where the bank pairs investors with executives from late-stage companies like Ramp and Databricks. Speed dating for startups, with wagyu beef and a prime ocean view.
The mood at this year’s event was ebullient, no doubt helped by the free-flowing Nobu open bar and an energetic DJ who nearly drowned out the sounds of crashing waves.
More importantly, there was a celebration about the upcoming mega IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, mixed with relief volatility tied to the war in Iran, which faded faster than feared.
“It’s remarkable how quickly things change,” said one banker. “Before the conference started, we saw the largest single stock buying activity on our trading desk since COVID.”
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The Nasdaq Composite has been on a historic tear over the last two weeks, rising roughly 10% since the beginning of the month.
“Two weeks ago, I would have told you that we wouldn’t see tech IPOs until the summertime,” the banker told me. “Now I think that you’ll see some tech companies look to go public in the next four to six weeks.”
For months, the dominant narrative on Wall Street has been that the IPO market wouldn’t truly reopen until SpaceX went public first, with its massive public market debut expected in June.
“That was the conventional wisdom coming in,” he said. “But now I don’t think that anyone cares.”
Instead of acting as a gatekeeper, SpaceX is increasingly viewed as being so colossal that it is an event unto itself.
“People are very excited about SpaceX,” the banker said. “I don’t think that there will be any IPOs that try to price when SpaceX is pricing, but it’s not to say that other companies can’t go public before SpaceX.”
Many companies are still cautious
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Still, don’t pop all the champagne just yet. Just because companies can go public does not mean they will.
Many startup CEOs have been unnerved by the dismal performance of former high-flying startups like Figma, which is down more than 80% since its August debut, another banker told me.
“I think they’re all scared,” he said. “What that ultimately leads to is a massive amount of stagnation.”
Even with the recent rebound, the so-called SaaSpocalypse has left many publicly traded tech companies battered while private investors have been more forgiving, a third banker told me.
“The public market’s paying lower multiples than the private market,” he said. “It’s hard to want to go public when you would be at a lower valuation.”
For months, that combination of fear and unfavorable public-market dynamics kept companies on the sidelines, reinforcing the idea that it was safer to wait for better conditions, stronger comps, and for a blockbuster like SpaceX to test the waters first.
That caution hasn’t gone away. Founders are still wary of weak post-IPO performance and lower public valuations. But the market’s sudden rebound is creating a competing pressure: the risk of missing the window altogether.
As the first banker put it, describing what he’s hearing from CEOs over the past several days: “I don’t need to wait until June, let’s go.”
