You made history. Now what?
SpaceX’s high-profile IPO lived up to the hype. Elon Musk’s rocket company’s record-breaking public debut surged as much as 30%. It ended the day roughly 20% above its IPO price, right in the sweet spot for a new public company.
The process included a lot of fanfare, and plenty of people got very rich, including minting the world’s first trillionaire. First Trade’s Joe Ciolli and I had a fun discussion about it on Friday. You can watch it here.
The debate around SpaceX isn’t over. Now it’s about whether the stock can maintain its day-one momentum, its impact on a sibling company, and how other IPO giants adjust plans.
Let’s break down the three big questions in the post-SpaceX IPO era.
Can SpaceX keep rolling? Performing well on your first day of trading is one thing. Staying there is something else entirely.
Lots of SpaceX critics said it’s a company they’d invest in for the long run, but not early on. Some cited the lifting of lock-up periods for shareholders as a reason to wait.
That’s a tricky thing to time. There’s not a single lock-up cliff. SpaceX is running a staggered release schedule that’s pretty spread out. Some shareholders can start selling shares around SpaceX’s first earnings report in late summer. Others, like Elon Musk, will need to wait an entire year.
And then there’s the question of valuation for a company that’s not profitable. As SpaceX’s price tag continues to climb — it’s already over $2 trillion — will investors get squeamish?
What happens to Tesla? There are big question marks around Musk’s other company. When SpaceX cited the possibility of acquisitions in its S-1, minds immediately jumped to Tesla.
Creating a singular Musk conglomerate makes sense. Tesla is already pitching itself as more of an AI company than an EV maker. And SpaceX acquired Musk’s AI startup, xAI, earlier this year.
But mashing together a bunch of different companies comes with risks. Investors like a clear vision of what a company is trying to achieve. And SpaceX is already wearing a lot of different hats without adding Tesla into the mix.
A merger of two companies of that size would also certainly draw regulators’ attention.
Tesla could face competition for investor dollars from SpaceX. Investors have long treated Tesla as the closest public proxy for betting on Musk. Now they have another option.
What’s OpenAI/Anthropic’s next move? Two more massive IPOs are waiting in the wings. Anthropic and OpenAI have both confidentially filed the paperwork to go public.
An exact timetable isn’t set, but it’s fair to expect their arrival in the coming months. SpaceX’s early success could expedite that process.
OpenAI and Anthropic are younger companies with less diversified businesses than SpaceX, but investors will view all three similarly: ambitious tech companies promising to reshape industries.
If SpaceX continues to climb, it could reinforce demand. If the stock struggles, it may force future issuers to rethink their timing and valuation expectations.
