Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger won Super Bowls in their second season in the NFL.
Several other quarterbacks took big leaps in Year 2. Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy led their teams to conference championships. So did Dan Marino and Colin Kaepernick.
Patrick Mahomes went to the AFC title game, losing to Brady. Mark Sanchez went there in his first two seasons. Carson Wentz finished third in MVP voting in his second season despite missing the final three games and playoffs.
Seven sophomore quarterbacks enter Week 1 as starters, including six who were among the first 12 picks in the 2024 draft.
Could Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix, J.J. McCarthy or Spencer Rattler win a Lombardi this season?
Here’s a look at each quarterback and their team’s chances:
Washington Commanders
Daniels and the Commanders have the best chance of the bunch. Daniels, the AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, led Washington to the NFC championship game against the Eagles after eliminating the Buccaneers and the top-seeded Lions on the road. The Commanders have the seventh-best Super Bowl odds at 18:1, according to BetMGM Sportsbook.
Daniels quickly established himself as one of the league’s top quarterbacks as a rookie, throwing for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. He posted a 100.1 passer rating and ran for 891 yards and six scores. Daniels was unflappable in the clutch, tossing a TD pass in the final 30 seconds or overtime in five games this season.
The Commanders added Deebo Samuel to give Daniels another playmaker along with Terry McLaurin. They acquired five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil to protect Daniels’ blind side.
The gap between Washington and Philadelphia isn’t as wide as the 55-23 score in the NFC title game suggests.
Denver Broncos
Nix helped the Denver Broncos end an eight-year playoff drought before losing to the Bills in the wild-card round. He threw for 3,775 yards, 29 TDs and 12 picks with 93.3 passer rating, and ran for 430 yards and four scores.
Coach Sean Payton already believes Nix is one of the league’s best quarterbacks and the offense added veteran tight end Evan Engram and running backs J.K. Dobbins and rookie R.J. Harvey.
With a stingy defense, Denver should push the Chiefs in a tough AFC West. The Broncos have 25:1 Super Bowl odds.
Minnesota Vikings
McCarthy takes over a 14-win team after missing his entire rookie season because of a knee injury. He led Michigan to a national championship in 2023.
The Vikings have confidence that McCarthy can help them take the next step in the playoffs. He has Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Aaron Jones and a revamped offensive line to help him. The Vikings have an aggressive, talented defense that helped them play for the NFC’s No. 1 seed in Week 18.
Minnesota is tied with Denver at 25:1 Super Bowl odds.
Chicago Bears
Williams, the No. 1 overall pick last year, has a new coach and offensive system after the Bears only won five games.
Ben Johnson helped build a dynamic offense in Detroit with Jared Goff and a talented supporting cast. He’s trying to develop Williams, who had 3,541 yards passing, 20 TDs and six interceptions as a rookie.
The Bears have playmakers on offense, including wide receivers D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze, rookie tight end Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet and running back D’Andre Swift. They bolstered an offensive line to better protect Williams, who was sacked a league-high 68 times.
They’re not a Super Bowl contender — 40:1 odds — but there’s optimism Johnson can help Williams lead Chicago to the playoffs.
Atlanta Falcons
Penix had a chance to lead Atlanta to a division title when he replaced Kirk Cousins in December last season but they went 1-2 in the final three games.
But Penix showed promise and has talented players around him. The offense should revolve around running back Bijan Robinson, which takes pressure off Penix.
The Falcons have 80:1 Super Bowl odds. They’ll compete with the Buccaneers for the NFC South.
New England Patriots
Maye was 3-9 as a rookie and he has a new coach and offensive system. Mike Vrabel is trying to lead the Patriots back to prominence and he brought offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels back to New England to develop Maye.
Maye has better protection and more playmakers around him this season — wide receiver Stefon Diggs and rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson.
With 80:1 Super Bowl odds, the Patriots are simply hoping to go from 4-13 to respectable.
New Orleans Saints
Rattler, a fifth-round pick last season, won the starting job in New Orleans. He was 0-6 as a rookie.
New coach Kellen Moore, who helped the Eagles win a Super Bowl as offensive coordinator, is trying to rebuild a 5-12 team.
He could turn to rookie Tyler Shough at some point and the team may eventually draft a franchise quarterback next year.
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