The race for Champions League qualification is heading for an EPIC conclusion on the final day of the season next Sunday.
Premier League winners Liverpool and second-placed Arsenal have already both guaranteed Champions League football.
But after Sunday’s results there is now just ONE POINT separating fourth-in-the-table Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest in seventh.
And even Manchester City are not yet certain of finishing in the top five despite beating Bournemouth this midweek.
It’s all set up for a blockbuster final day with Forest hosting Chelsea, live on Sky Sports, Newcastle playing Everton, Aston Villa heading to Old Trafford to face Manchester United and Guardiola’s team at Fulham.
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Ahead of City’s game with Bournemouth, Jamie Carragher and Gary Neville assessed the race for the Champions League and picked who they think will finish in the top five
How it stands
Manchester City – Points 68, Goal difference + 26
Remaining fixture: Fulham vs Man City
City are nearly there after beating Bournemouth on Tuesday night.
That said, defeat at Fulham on the final day would leave them vulnerable: if City lose at Craven Cottage and Newcastle, Villa and Chelsea all win then Pep Guardiola’s side would slump from third to sixth. (Forest would go level on points with City in the event of a Fulham victory and Forest defeating Chelsea, but the gap in goal difference is too large for Forest to finish above City).
So a point IS still required.
And even a point wouldn’t mathematically guarantee a top-five berth – but given Villa have such a vast goal difference deficit, it is all-but impossible to see how a point wouldn’t be sufficient.
City’s goal difference advantage over Chelsea and Newcastle is less substantial but still meaty enough to mean that a point ought to be enough to claim third.
Second place is still mathematically possible for City but is deeply unrealistic: a point for Arsenal at Southampton will claim the runners-up spot and even in the event of a shock defeat for the Gunners, City would have around half-a-dozen goals to make up were both clubs to finish on 71 points.
Newcastle’s remaining fixtures – Points 66, Goal difference + 22
Remaining fixture: Newcastle vs Everton
With every Champions League-related result going against Newcastle this weekend, Eddie Howe’s side now face a huge assignment against Everton on the last day – and possibly without Alexander Isak up front.
A draw would only be enough courtesy of goal difference if Aston Villa failed to win AND Forest vs Chelsea didn’t end in a draw.
So the bottom line is that with four teams within a point of them, Newcastle can only contemplate a win being enough on the final day to book a place in the Champions League.
Chelsea – Points 66, Goal difference + 20
Remaining fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea, live on Sky Sports
Because their goal difference is so much better than Villa’s, Chelsea will qualify for the Champions League if they win on Sunday at Forest by finishing above both Villa and Forest.
A draw would only be sufficient if Newcastle are defeated by Everton OR Villa fail to win at Manchester United.
Defeat would be terminal for the top five as a Forest win would automatically demote Chelsea into sixth or lower.
Aston Villa – Points 66, Goal difference + 9
Remaining fixture: Man United vs Aston Villa
Mathematically, a draw at Manchester United will be enough for Villa to finish in fifth were Newcastle to lose and Forest vs Chelsea to also end in a draw.
But, much like with Chelsea above, the strong likelihood is that Villa HAVE to win on the final day to make it into the top five.
And even then, with Villa only boasting a goal difference of plus nine, victory at Old Trafford won’t be enough if Newcastle and Chelsea also both win and City take at least a point at Fulham.
Nottingham Forest – Points 65, Goal difference + 13
Remaining fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea, live on Sky Sports
There’s hope for Forest but to overtake two teams above them and finish in the top five the minimum requirement is victory over Chelsea on the final day.
True, they can still finish as one of three teams on 66 points with a draw but in that scenario they are near-certain to finish in sixth below Newcastle on goal difference with Chelsea on 67 points.
So only a win on the final day will do, and even then Forest (with 68 points if they win) will have to hope for either Villa not to win at Manchester United (leaving Villa on 66 or 67) or Newcastle not to beat Everton (which would also leave Newcastle on 66 or 67 points).
See you on Sunday.
