Microsoft wants its employees to know that it considers prediction markets to fall under its insider trading policy.
In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Microsoft included an updated copy of its “General Insider Trading Policy,” which now mentions both “prediction markets and events contracts.”
“If you are in possession of such material, nonpublic information the securities laws and/or Microsoft prohibit you from trading in (or gifting) the securities of that company or engaging in other transactions that provide economic exposure to such company, including through prediction markets or event contracts,” the policy reads.
It’s not clear when exactly the tech giant updated its policy. A spokesperson for Microsoft declined to comment beyond confirming the policy’s existence. Previous versions of the policy filed with the SEC did not mention prediction markets or event contracts. An event contract is the formal term for the financial stake a trader takes in a real-world outcome.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket, two leading prediction markets, offered trades on which words or phrases Microsoft officials would say during the company’s quarterly earnings call on Wednesday. Kalshi’s market attracted over $165,000 in total trades.
Prediction markets have exploded in popularity recently. Kalshi said it recorded more than $27 billion in trades related to the 2026 World Cup.
Microsoft’s policy does not go as far as some Wall Street banks. Reuters previously reported that Goldman Sachs sent a memo to employees banning workers from participating in contracts linked to financial markets or political events that could create the appearance of a conflict of interest.
Still, Microsoft’s policy is broad enough in scope that it could presumably cover markets for companies like OpenAI and Anthropic if an employee were to obtain private information about them. The policy also applies to information about competitors, which, given Microsoft’s diverse interests ranging from gaming to cloud computing, could encompass an even larger universe of potential bets.
“You may not participate in third-party platforms, ‘prediction markets,’ or similar platforms to bet, wager, or establish positions in event contracts when such activity is based on, or involves the use of, confidential information about Microsoft or any other company (including customers, vendors, or partners of Microsoft or an economically-linked company such as a competitor of Microsoft) obtained through your position at Microsoft,” the policy reads.
Federal regulators and the Department of Justice have begun cracking down on suspected insider trading on prediction market platforms. In May, a Google software engineer was charged with violating the Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud, and money laundering after prosecutors said he used confidential Google information to make more than $1 million on Polymarket.
A Google spokesperson previously told Business Insider that Google’s marketing material was accessed using a tool available to all employees, but that using confidential information to place bets is a “serious breach” of Google’s policies.
More recently, a White House teleprompter operator was put on leave after he reportedly netted more than $100,000 on Kalshi. The Associated Press reported this week that the employee, Gabriel Perez, was out of his job.
Kalshi and Polymarket prohibit the use of nonpublic information to inform trades and have systems in place to flag suspicious usage to detect any such trades.
Correction: July 30, 2026 — A section of this story has been updated to reflect that Microsoft employees cannot use insider information on prediction markets.
