Have you ever wondered exactly what sorts of financial bets lawmakers and top staffers are making?
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If you’re talking about stock trading, that information is easy enough to find. Current ethics laws require federal politicians and other high-ranking government officials to disclose their purchases and sales of stocks within 30 to 45 days of making the trade, allowing the public to follow along.
But if you’re wondering about prediction market trades, you’re out of luck: There’s no law on the books requiring government officials to disclose to the public exactly what they may be betting on.
That doesn’t mean we’re completely in the dark.
Lawmakers are required to report sources of outside income worth more than $200, meaning the public should be able to know at least how much money public officials may be making from prediction market trading.
Kedrick Payne, vice president and senior director of ethics at the Campaign Legal Center, told Business Insider that it’s a matter of enforcing current laws.
“What’s missing right now is for the ethics committees to remind people that these disclosure rules apply,” Payne said.
Kalshi, the largest prediction market in the US, has said that it automatically bans members of Congress from trading on its platform.
And the White House recently warned staffers not to trade on prediction markets amid the Iran war, a White House official confirmed to Business Insider. The news was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.
“All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle said.
Still, the lack of detailed disclosure laws for prediction market trades has drawn attention from lawmakers, particularly as prediction markets have exploded in popularity and public concerns about potential insider trading have grown.
‘Our hope is that this will restore trust’
One bill, the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, aims to close the disclosure gap.
Introduced in March by Republican Sen. Todd Young of Indiana and Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, the bill would require the president, vice president, members of Congress, and top staffers in both the executive and legislative branches to disclose the details of any prediction market trades worth more than $250.
Those details include:
The value and number of the event contracts purchased;When they were purchased (or sold);What the trade was on, and which side the person took;Which prediction market platform the person used;Any profit or loss incurred after the market resolved, or the person sold their contracts.
“We think that we’re creating the sort of mechanism that the American people would expect,” Young told Bloomberg recently. “Our hope is that this will restore trust in the decision-making that we have here in Congress.”
The bill also prohibits those officials from using non-public information to profit from those prediction market trades, with violations carrying a fine of $500, or twice the amount of profit made on a prohibited trade — whichever is higher.
‘It could end up influencing the market’
At the same time, there may be some downsides to requiring the disclosure of individual event contract trades.
Payne, who previously served as Deputy Chief Counsel at the Office of Congressional Ethics, said that he didn’t think increased disclosure would be “prudent or practical.”
In fact, having members of Congress disclose their investments in prediction markets that don’t resolve for a long period of time may “make it worse,” he said.
Payne drew a comparison to the way that the public currently follows stock trades by members of Congress, arguing that the disclosure of individual prediction market trades could lead others to make that same bet, thus raising the price and financially benefiting the lawmaker.
“They’re going to bet with that member of Congress,” Payne said. “It could end up influencing the market in a way that is damaging.”
Payne said that much like with stock trading, a simple blanket ban on members of Congress trading on prediction markets may make more sense.
In recent months, several lawmakers have introduced bills that would impose new regulations on prediction markets or restrict the trading activity of public officials.
One of those bills, the “End Prediction Market Corruption Act” from Democratic Sens. Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, would ban the president, vice president, and members of Congress from trading on prediction markets altogether.
