One of Kalshi’s fastest-growing markets has little to do with sports, elections, or any of the other hot topics that people might associate with the prediction market platform.
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It’s about tech layoffs, according to the company’s cofounders.
“I think it’s an important market, because people should know and position accordingly,” CEO Tarek Mansour said on an episode of “The Axios Show” released on Thursday morning. “It’s an interesting question about how people should like, think about their jobs and what should they do when going to school, and studying in college.”
The market, which asks whether there will be more tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025, has already reached more than $30 million in trading volume.
For comparison, that’s larger than the $25 million that Kalshi traders wagered on who would win “Best Actor” at the Oscars in March.
And the market says there’s a more than 83% chance that the number of layoffs in the information sector in 2026 will exceed 447,000, the total for 2025.
Kalshi COO Luana Lopes Lara said the market volume has been “growing 20% week-over-week.”
“I think it’s just so interesting to see,” she added.
Several large tech companies have already seen major waves of layoffs in 2026, including Meta, Amazon, and Oracle.
Much of that has been driven by the continued spread of artificial intelligence into the workplace, with AI replacing things like coding and software engineering.
In some cases, companies are rehiring previously full-time employees as contract workers amid broader shifts in investment toward AI.
