On Sunday, an analyst group called Citrini Research published a remarkable piece illustrating how agentic AI could bring on mass economic destruction over the next two years. The scenario imagines a report from two years in the future, in which unemployment has doubled, and the total value of the stock market has fallen by more than a third. As the report puts it:
AI capabilities improved, companies needed fewer workers, white collar layoffs increased, displaced workers spent less, margin pressure pushed firms to invest more in AI, AI capabilities improved…
It was a negative feedback loop with no natural brake…The system turned out to be one long daisy chain of correlated bets on white-collar productivity growth.
It’s a new kind of bear case, focused not on Skynet-style misalignment but on the gradual unspooling of the economy itself. In particular, the Citrini scenario looks at the implications of integrating AI agents into the economy at large, and what it would mean when outside contractors get replaced by cheaper in-house AI. It’s similar to the Death of SaaS scenario, but Citrini goes further, implicating any business model that involves optimizing transactions between companies.
As you might expect, the report is causing quite a stir online. Not everyone is buying it — even Citrini describes it as more of a scenario than a prediction — but it’s not so easy to name the specific point where you think the scenario goes wrong.
Personally, I’m not sure companies are ready to hand off purchasing decisions to AI agents, no matter how smart they are. But in Citrini’s scenario, most of the impacted decisions have already been handed off to third-party contractors, so it’s not quite as implausible as it seems.
