Hello Yahoo! I’m Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which if you have Yahoo+, you’ll notice is available this year to help you manage your teams. Each Friday morning, I’ll be digging into 3 players projected to play above their usual level, and 3 players projected to play below their usual level. (I’ll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered.)
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Last week’s advice went pretty well, with Kyren Williams rushing for 114 yards, Nico Collins going 7-75 and Chuba Hubbard fading into the background. In terms of misses, Keenan Allen had a quiet game and Jameson Williams did not. Anyway, on to Week 10 …
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Lamar Jackson (and Baltimore pass-catchers)
THE BLITZ Week 10 Projection: 267 passing yards, 41 rushing yards, 1.84 passing TD, 0.29 rushing TD
Week 10 vs. ROS: 24.4 fantasy points vs. 22.5 points per game
After weeks of languishing, Lamar Jackson and the good version of Baltimore’s offense is back, and this week they step into a great matchup as they go indoors to face the Vikings in a pace-up spot. They have a top-five team total and face a defense that plays zone at one of the highest rates in the league. Jackson’s top two pass-catchers, Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, both have splits that favor zone matchups. This sets up as a strong spot for all involved.
Parker Washington, Jaguars
THE BLITZ Week 10 Projection: 8.0 targets, 4.5 receptions, 62 yards, 0.36 TD
Week 10 vs. ROS: 13.9 PPR points vs. 9.2 PPR points per game
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Washington has boasted one of the top targets-per-routes-run rates in football this year, but has only run a route on 57% of dropbacks. That skyrocketed to 91% in Week 9, and his target share went with it, finishing at an elite 28%. With Brian Thomas Jr. set to miss, Dyami Brown injured and questionable and newly-acquired Jakobi Meyers needing time to get up to speed in the offense, we should be in for at least one more high-volume Washington game in Week 10. And while Meyers has a history of being able to play the slot — which would potentially change Washington’s role and take away some looks — Jacksonville said that it will be easier for Meyers to catch up on the outside receiver spots, securing the slot for Washington.
Rico Dowdle, Panthers
THE BLITZ Week 10 Projection: 22.7 carries, 2.2 receptions, 114 yards, 0.62 TD
Week 10 vs. ROS: RB7 vs. RB12
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Reading the tea leaves last week in this space, I thought we would see Dowdle take over the Carolina backfield, and that’s exactly what happened; he garnered 81% of the team’s carries despite getting a bit banged up midway through the game. We should fully expect that type of usage to continue into Week 10, when the Panthers are … *checks notes*… a 5.5 point favorite! Most weeks they play from behind, but against the Saints, they’re likely to be playing with a lead and having every opportunity to run the ball as much as Dave Canales wants. (And trust me, Dave Canales wants.) Dowdle could be in for one of his biggest workloads of the year, especially considering that the Saints play at the fastest rate in the league, boosting overall play volume for Carolina in this spot.
WRs on new teams: Meyers, Rashid Shaheed & AD Mitchell
THE BLITZ Week 10 Projection: 4.9 targets, 2.8 receptions, 35 yards, 0.19 TD
Week 10 vs. ROS: 7.5 PPR points vs. 9.4 PPR points per game
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It’s always exciting when a struggling fantasy asset finds himself in a new situation, especially when that situation is theoretically better than the previous one. However, it’s wise to approach these players with caution for the first week or two. Football isn’t the same as a sport like, say, baseball, where a batter could get traded to that day’s opposing team, walk across to the other dugout and play in the same game almost as if nothing happened. In football, where playbooks and schematic details can be vastly different from team-to-team, there is a catching-up period whenever someone is traded to a new organization, and few are able to catch up enough to play at 100% in their first week with a team.
If you are an excited Meyers manager, you may want to consider keeping him on your bench at least for this week to see how he acclimates.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions
THE BLITZ Week 10 Projection: 9.7 targets, 7.1 completions, 90 yards, 0.70 TD
Week 10 vs. ROS: 21.8 PPR points vs. 23.2 PPR points per game
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The Sun God is about as elite as they come, and I’m by no means suggesting that he’s about to completely faceplant, but this does set up as a week where he may not live up to his usual lofty expectations. For starters, the Lions go on the road, away from their dome, and into the outdoor elements. They face a Washington team that just lost star quarterback Jayden Daniels, and as a result, the Lions are 8-point favorites. That means this run-leaning team will be able to lean even more on the run if they want to. And finally, Washington plays man coverage shells at a top-10 rate in the NFL, while St. Brown’s man/zone splits skew heavily towards torching zone defenses. He doesn’t project bad, but he doesn’t project as good as usual either.
Chris Olave, Saints
THE BLITZ Week 10 Projection: 8.9 targets, 5.3 completions, 62 yards, 0.36 TD
Week 10 vs. ROS: WR24 vs. WR16
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In his first week with Tyler Shough as quarterback, Olave’s target share plunged from 30%+ down to 13%. The trade of Rashid Shaheed should open some of those targets back up, but Olave was never a 30% target share guy before this year, and a new variable as huge as the identity of his quarterback throws into question whether he’s actually THE guy or if he’ll settle into a lower number. It doesn’t help that the team will be going on the road, outdoors, to face a very slow-paced Carolina offense that is excited to use their shiny new starter-Rico Dowdle toy on the ground. And while they are underdogs in this game, 5.5 points is one of the lowest numbers we’ll see for the Saints all year. In other words, their chances of keeping this game close are as strong as they ever are, so they may not even be forced into slinging the rock in the second half the way they often must.
