Tesla will report third-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell, and investors are eager to hear updates on some of the EV maker’s big projects, namely its Robotaxi rollout and how it’s incorporating AI into its vehicles.
Tesla stock has had an extremely volatile 2025. It fell as much as 47% from January to March as investors worried about weak demand and CEO Elon Musk’s work with the Trump administration, which drummed up political protests and calls for boycotts.
Then, shares kicked off a 100% rally as investors bought the beaten-down stock amid Musk’s renewed focus on the company and dissipating tariff headwinds.
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Wednesday’s earnings update will provide investors with fresh insight into the company’s direction and whether its furious stock rally can continue.
Here’s what top analysts say to look out for in the company’s third-quarter report.
Dan Ives, Wedbush
Ives says to watch out for what the company says about its plans for AI.
“The earnings/guidance on Wed are clearly important but take a backseat to the broader and important AI initiatives at Tesla,” Ives wrote in an October 19 client note.
“We continue to strongly believe the most important chapter in Tesla’s growth story is now beginning with the AI era now here,” he continued. “It starts with autonomous then robotics as we believe the autonomous valuation is worth $1 trillion alone to the Tesla story over the next few years that will start to get unlocked over the coming months.”
Ives has a price target of $600 for shares of Tesla, representing a gain of 38% from Tuesday’s price.
Dave Sekera, Morningstar
Sekera advised investors to watch for guidance on a timeline for Tesla’s Robotaxi rollout. Second, he said he wants to see an update on production of its cheapest vehicles, the Model Y and Model 3.
At the moment, Sekera thinks Tesla stock is overpriced.
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“We think generally the market is overestimating the amount and speed of earnings growth here. We think that to some degree, the market is really pricing in Tesla more as an AI stock rather than as an operating company,” he wrote this week. “The stock trades at over a 70% premium to our fair value. That puts it well into two-star territory. So yes, the stock is overvalued, but personally, I would caution that I don’t think this is a stock to short. I just wouldn’t bet against Elon Musk.”
Tom Narayan, RBC Capital Markets
Narayan recently upped his Tesla price target to $500 a share after speaking with its management team about production of its humanoid robot, Optimus, which they say has a total addressable market worth $9 trillion.
For 2025, Narayan thinks deliveries will miss expectations by 7% compared to the consensus 10%.
Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs
Delaney shared five topics investors will be watching:
The outlook for vehicle deliveries Automotive profit marginsProgress on robotaxis and full self-drivingGrowth in its energy business Fresh updates on the Optimus robot
Delaney has a price target of $425 a share and a “Neutral” rating. He said the bank expects the company to deliver 475,000 vehicles this quarter.
Andres Sheppard, Cantor
Sheppard, who has a rather bearish price target of $355 on the stock, said he’ll be listening most closely to what updates Musk has to say about the stock’s biggest catalysts for the months ahead.
“Above all, we will be focusing on Elon’s commentary, particularly
updates on the timing of several upcoming key material potential near-term catalysts, including: continued rollout of Robotaxi in Texas and California, ramp up of the Model 3/Y standard (lower-cost vehicle), FSD adoption in China and Europe, launch of the cybercab in 2026, and an update on the timeline for its humanoid Optimus Bot,” Sheppard wrote.
The bank’s target implies about 20% downside from current levels.
